Gwyn Jones farm Diary: Expect future prices to be in a very different place by next year

The early spring turned dry and cold, stifling growth and to see it so dry this early was worrying. Maize drilling had been delayed by lack of moisture in the soil and soil temperature itself, with drills placing seed deeper in the ground in order to find that moisture. We had some grass seeding to do and held off until there was a sign of some rain, and at the beginning of last week we took the plunge and thankfully it has rained most days since, but remaining cold. Warmer weather on the way now though, just in time for people’s bank holiday weekend.

We will now worry whether our grass seed will green up nicely, only to dry up before it has a chance to put its roots down. Annoyingly, weeds seem to thrive whatever the weather and we will need to attack those with cutting and spraying regrowth if necessary. We will graze the fields with some sheep first and see what we have to deal with after that.

We are now told to prepare for fuel shortages, as the country will start to see the real impact of the Iran war, according to Jeremy Moody of Central Association of Agricultural Valuers. He claims that reviews of the oil markets by experts indicate a tipping point in June and whilst the impacts have been in South Asia up until now, it is now heading our way. His message is to government, urging them to prioritise the food industry and to plan for that.

Whilst dairy prices have started to slowly rise again, wheat futures are also slowly moving up as the world tries to figure out where the market is. There has been less planting in Europe this spring and there are other problems affecting different parts of the world. The global surplus which has kept prices low despite rising costs on farms, will not last long should production fall. It takes time for markets to react, but I think it would be a fair bet to expect future prices to be in a very different place by next year. That would give farmers confidence to plant cereals this autumn.

There is an interesting project being looked at by Scotland’s Rural college (SRUC) who have a very good track record in our industry. They are looking at a ‘GreenShed’, a system where a dairy or beef building houses the cattle, with waste products being used to power a methane capturing system and grow indoor crops. The shed will also produce low carbon fertilizer with the potential to remove 237 tonnes of carbon dioxide per farm, per year.

This project has received £3 million from the government’s Net Zero Innovation Portfolio. Other Universities and commercial companies are also involved which makes this a serious initiative. The shed’s anaerobic digestion plant will not only power the methane capture system, but the vertical farm and low carbon fertilizer system. This could bring in £40,000 of extra income and save £1000 a year in fertilizer and energy costs.

We are now seeing innovative working examples of how researchers, industry and commercial partners can collaborate and maybe bring a more resilient, producer chain which is also aligned with climate targets. If such innovation can improve profitability, expand saleable food products and reduce the impact of dairy and beef production, that is a win win. This is just one of many different projects being worked on which might offer proper, commercial solutions, rather than a headlong rush to cut emissions, pushed by environmentalists at great cost.

I was glad to see the RSPCA Assurance Scheme introducing a ban on methane-reducing feed additives for cattle. This column has questioned the interference with what is a normal process of producing some methane, which is not increasing as cattle numbers are static or reducing each year. We can’t have one rule for production, but anything goes for the environment.

 I was against artificial interference in the past which offered production gains, still in use elsewhere in the world of course, and I am against that same type of interference now on environmental grounds. It is absurd. Science needs to find solutions which is not only commercially sensible, but acceptable to the public. I am acutely aware of our social licence to produce food in agriculture without overstepping boundaries. It’s a fine balance and whilst we need to fight in order to keep essential tools for the job, animals should not be unnecessarily interfered with to compensate for our emissions problems.

Just when we all think that things cannot get any worse in this country, it can and has. We now have a psycho drama in Westminster much to the excitement of all the media, breathlessly flying around like gadflies. They are so excited with their minute by minute so called developments, will it be Wes or Andy, what about Angie. How can we organise to get Andy into Westminster in time (we are not your stepping stone say some voters)? Can we delay things? Will Keir take them on and fight to the finish?

Unfortunately, all this costs the country (us) money. The cost of servicing our huge national debt goes up with uncertainty and there is plenty of uncertainty about just now. Have we not been here before? A mayor who wanted to be leader; how did that turn out? Do we really want a repeat? No wonder people are voting ‘none of the above’ and treating politicians with contempt.

Ambition and fear are dangerous traits and there seems to be plenty of both as always at Westminster. Anyone would think that the prize is to lead a great country in good financial health, a country with no fundamental issues with the economy, public services in good health. Is this a well-kept secret plan to make Liz Truss look competent, is there an undercover Liz Truss fan club at work here?

Let’s face it, whatever one thinks of Sir Keir Starmer, he has faced an electorate divorced from reality, many of his own backbenchers delusional and responsible for forcing the U-turns he is criticised for. It makes no difference now as it seems his time is up, and the economic challenges and our ingrained problems as a country remain. It has been decided that he is not up to the job, the theory being that a more skilful, articulate leader might tell a more compelling story. They are calling for the King of the North to enter the fray and that will give theatre if nothing else. I worry about the media collapsing from sheer exhaustion with such drama!

If any of us thought that after two years everything would be fine and dandy, especially as Starmer warned at the outset that things would get harder before they got better, then we too are delusional. Whilst opposition leaders peddle similar fantasies of their own, the sunlit uplands nonsense, the snake oil, we are now likely to see a new leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister who will take the country to the left of Starmer’s politics. That will cheer many up as they wait for the ‘delivery’.

It will be interesting to see what happens, where the trade-offs will take us as the new PM  returns to the Labour values they crave. How will the backbenchers who have built their profile by stifling the very government who gave them their victory behave? Is a new regime going to risk all in order to feel good about themselves at the expense of the country? How long before disaffection sets in once again?